Frequently Asked Questions:
- How Accurate Is The US Debt Game?
- Why Did You Write The US Debt Game?
- How Is Bankruptcy Defined?
- What is the US Government Credit Downgrade Event?
- What are the Major Gulf Hurrican/Major World Event/Solar Energy Breakthrough/Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough?
Q: How Accurate Is The US Debt Game?
A: Whenever you attempt to predict the future there are always an extraordinary number of variables to take into account. While the game does offer you ways to tinker with Government spending and the economy there is always the possibility that the Government will take more extreme actions in the future. They could decide to force a balanced budget or they could decide to throw more money out the door that they don't have. However, given the information at the time the game was written and baring any major changes in the future the model is fairly accurate. Obviously if a bill like Health Care Refore passes then then new information would have to be inputted into the mode. If you take out the random events, which are designed to simulate standard deviation events, the model does roughly reflect the CBO estimates. The debt at the end of 2019 tends to be around $21T, inline with the estimates at the CBO.
Source: CBO August Projected Deficits and Surpluses
Q: Why Did You Write The US Debt Game?
A: I was curious about the financial health of the country, as many Americans are, and I decided to write a model to provide me with information about the future. With the model done and the results in hand I wanted to share that information with the public, but writing a blog post or emailing friends that the government on an unsustainable path is not the best way to reach people. As a game designer I'm well aware that the power of presenting information in a format that can be interacted with, this is especially true when presenting something that normally isn't tangible; like the deficit and debt of the Government. The result is The US Debt Game, which I encourage you to share with your friends. Let them try and get the USA out of debt using whatever means they wish.
Q: How Is Bankruptcy Defined?
A: Bankruptcy happens when debt can no longer be serviced and there is no possibility that it would be serviced in the future. In the game Bankruptcy happens when 100% of the Government's revenue is going to make interest payments or debt has grown to over three times GDP. It is highly unlikely that you will grow Debt far beyond GDP because of the effects of inflation, however having all your income going to make interest payments on debt is highly likely.
Q: What is the US Government Credit Downgrade Event?
A: This event happens once interest payment exceed one third of revenue and is a strong indication that the Government will be Bankrupt within a decade. Within the game it indicates that the government will have trouble borrowing money making it more expensive for them to do so. This also simulates the world losing faith in the US Government and with the US dollar. The effect starts off small, but it grows more dramatic the higher the debt rises.
Q: What are the Major Gulf Hurrican/Major World Event/Solar Energy Breakthrough/Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough?
A:
Major Gulf Hurrican - Cost the Government $50B over a year and causes a minor spike in oil and energy prices.
Major World Event - Cost the Government $600B over three years and causes a major spike in oil and energy prices
Solar Energy Breakthrough - Increases the use of green energy and lower the cost of green energy.
Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough - Increases the use of nuclear power and drastically reduced the cost of nuclear power and lowers energy prices overall.